PhilStockWorld January Portfolio Review – Part 2

Thank God for hedges!    As of Tuesday morning's review , we had $800,000 worth of hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio and suddenly, on Friday morning – we're already wondering if that's enough, right?  This is why we ALWAYS hedge – especially in a toppy market and, as Fundamental Investors – we know when a market is toppy.  We also have RULES about hedging, like putting 25-33% of our unrealized gains into our hedges.  That's how our hedges rise proportionally with our portfolios – so we don't let ourselves get complacent in a rally . Our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) is paired with our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and acts as the primary hedge there but it also has enough to spare to cover our other portfolios against a 20% correction.  Above that and we're in trouble but, of course, we simply add more hedges when 10% fails and again when 20% fails.  At the moment, 10% seems ready to fail. Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of  34,560  (weak) and  34,920  (strong)  S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of  4,512  (weak) and  4,559  (strong)  Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,000 has bounce lines of  15,300  (weak) and  15,600  (strong)  …

What is hedging? | Advanced trading strategies & risk management | FidelityThank God for hedges!  

As of Tuesday morning's review, we had $800,000 worth of hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio and suddenly, on Friday morning – we're already wondering if that's enough, right?  This is why we ALWAYS hedge – especially in a toppy market and, as Fundamental Investors – we know when a market is toppy.  We also have RULES about hedging, like putting 25-33% of our unrealized gains into our hedges.  That's how our hedges rise proportionally with our portfolios – so we don't let ourselves get complacent in a rally.

Our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) is paired with our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and acts as the primary hedge there but it also has enough to spare to cover our other portfolios against a 20% correction.  Above that and we're in trouble but, of course, we simply add more hedges when 10% fails and again when 20% fails.  At the moment, 10% seems ready to fail.

  • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
  • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,000 has bounce lines of 15,300 (weak) and 15,600 (strong) 


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