Fast-food chain McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 9.7% year on year to $7.01 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $3.12 per share was 2.2% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy MCD? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
McDonald's (MCD) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $7.01 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.83 billion (9.7% year-on-year growth, 2.6% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $3.12 vs analyst estimates of $3.05 (2.2% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $3.28 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.72 billion (46.8% margin, 11.8% miss)
- Operating Margin: 45%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales rose 5.7% year on year (0.4% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $230.2 billion
StockStory’s Take
McDonald's Q4 results reflected robust momentum, with management attributing performance to a strengthened value proposition, broad-based marketing campaigns, and menu innovation. CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted that initiatives like the McValue program and the relaunch of extra value meals helped the company gain share among low-income consumers and improve value perception scores. Marketing collaborations, such as the Minecraft movie meal and the Grinch campaign, generated significant customer excitement and drove incremental sales, while product launches like Snack Wraps and McWings resonated in core markets.
Looking ahead, management expects continued progress by focusing on the interplay of value, marketing, and menu innovation. CFO Ian Borden emphasized the importance of maintaining operating margin discipline while accelerating new restaurant development and digital engagement. The company aims to expand its beverage platform, enhance chicken offerings, and leverage its growing loyalty program to drive frequency. Kempczinski noted, "With 250 million 90-day active users expected by 2027, our digital platform will be a key growth engine."
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management credited Q4 strength to the success of value-focused initiatives, compelling marketing, and targeted menu innovation, while citing franchisee alignment and digital engagement as structural advantages.
- Value-led traffic gains: The McValue program and extra value meals attracted budget-conscious consumers, with franchisee cash flow rising and value and affordability scores improving, particularly among low-income guests.
- Marketing campaign resonance: High-impact initiatives like the McDonald's-Minecraft collaboration and the Grinch campaign set sales records, with the latter resulting in 50 million pairs of collectible socks sold globally in just days.
- Menu innovation traction: The return of Snack Wraps in the U.S., McWings in Australia, and the permanent addition of the Big Arch in the U.K. catered to diverse tastes and drove incremental sales.
- Digital and loyalty expansion: The MONOPOLY campaign spurred a surge in digital users, now totaling 46 million active app users in the U.S. alone. Globally, loyalty program engagement nearly doubled year-on-year, supporting higher visit frequency and transaction value.
- International market execution: Markets like the U.K., Germany, and Australia reported solid comparable sales growth, underpinned by tailored value offers and local marketing. Japan’s launch of My McDonald’s Rewards marked a milestone in digital strategy, while China continued rapid store expansion despite macroeconomic pressures.
Drivers of Future Performance
McDonald’s outlook is shaped by accelerating new unit growth, continued focus on value and digital engagement, and planned menu and beverage innovation.
- Accelerated restaurant expansion: Management targets approximately 2,600 new openings in 2026 and aims to reach 50,000 restaurants by 2027, expecting about 4.5% unit growth. The company sees attractive returns from new sites, even in mature markets, supporting long-term sales growth.
- Digital and loyalty scaling: The goal of 250 million 90-day active loyalty users by 2027 is expected to drive higher visit frequency and deepen customer relationships. Management views this as the company’s most important digital metric, fueling both top-line growth and brand engagement.
- Menu and beverage innovation: The forthcoming U.S. McCafé beverage launch, expansion of the Best Burger platform, and new chicken offerings are intended to attract a broader customer base and respond to evolving dietary trends, including the impact of new appetite-suppressing medications (GLP-1s).
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) progress on the U.S. McCafé beverage rollout and its impact on incremental traffic, (2) the pace and effectiveness of new restaurant openings across key markets, and (3) further expansion and engagement in the loyalty program, especially as digital and AI-driven enhancements are deployed. Continued adaptation to shifting consumer dietary trends will also be a focus area.
McDonald's currently trades at $322.78, in line with $323.21 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
High Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
Your portfolio can’t afford to be based on yesterday’s story. The risk in a handful of heavily crowded stocks is rising daily.
The names generating the next wave of massive growth are right here in our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
