What Happened?
Shares of analog chips maker onsemi (NASDAQ: ON) jumped 3.1% in the afternoon session after the company reported mixed fourth-quarter results where earnings per share beat analyst estimates, but revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short. The analog chip maker posted an adjusted EPS of $0.64, beating the consensus estimate of $0.62. Revenue came in at $1.53 billion, in line with expectations but representing an 11.2% decline from the previous year. However, the positive earnings surprise was tempered by the company's forecast for the first quarter, which projected both revenue and earnings below Wall Street's projections. Despite the weak outlook, investors appeared to focus on the better-than-expected profit and a strong free cash flow margin of 31.7% for the quarter. The stock's rally represented a significant reversal from an initial 4.6% drop immediately following the earnings release, suggesting a shift in sentiment as the market digested the full report.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $66.82, up 1.7% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
onsemi’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 31 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 18 days ago when the stock dropped 2.7% on the news that Intel reported disappointing earnings report and weak forecast for the current quarter. Shares of the chipmaker plunged about 12% after it posted a fourth-quarter loss and provided a softer-than-expected outlook. The company's first-quarter revenue projections of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion fell short of analyst consensus. More concerning for the broader sector, Intel executives flagged industry-wide supply shortages as a significant problem that could persist into 2026, with supply capabilities expected to be at their lowest point in the first quarter. When a market leader like Intel signals such widespread issues, it often creates a ripple effect, raising investor concerns about the health and near-term prospects of the entire semiconductor industry.
onsemi is up 17.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $66.82 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of onsemi’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,674.
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