The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.51%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.20%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.36%.

Stock indexes are retreating today, with the S&P 500 dropping to a 1.5-week low and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.75-month low.  Risk-off sentiment is weighing on stocks amid concerns that the payout from elevated capital spending by tech companies on artificial intelligence will come anytime soon.  Also, concerns have surfaced that the latest tools released by Google, Anthropic, and other AI startups are already good enough to disrupt many sectors of the economy, including finance, logistics, software, and trucking.  In addition, today’s selloff in gold and silver is weighing on mining stocks.

On the positive side for stocks is lower bond yields after last Friday’s US January consumer prices rose less than expected, which may prompt the Fed to keep cutting interest rates.  The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.5-month low today of 4.02%.

Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks.  The US Feb NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell by -1 to a 5-month low of 36, weaker than expectations of an increase to 38. Conversely, the US Feb Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey fell -0.6 to 7.1, a smaller decline than expectations of 6.2.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that services inflation remains elevated, but there is potential for more interest rate cuts this year if inflation continues to return to the Fed's 2% target.

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  On Wednesday, Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts (a proxy for capital spending) are expected to increase by +0.4% m/m.  Also, Dec housing starts and building permits will be released. In addition, Jan manufacturing production is expected to climb by +0.4% m/m.  Finally, the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting will be released.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000.  Also, the Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall by -5.3 to 7.3.  In addition, the Dec trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion. Finally, Jan pending home sales are expected to increase by +2.0% m/m.  On Friday, Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% (q/q annualized), and the Q4 core price index is expected to be up by +2.6%.  Also, Dec personal spending is expected to rise by +0.4% m/m and Dec personal income is expected to be up +0.3% m/m.  In addition, the Dec core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to be up +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y.  The Feb S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.4, and Dec new home sales will be released.  Finally, the University of Michigan Feb consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unrevised at 57.3.

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with nearly three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 76% of the 371 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 9% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.29%.  China’s Shanghai Composite is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holidays.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.42%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.2 bp to 4.046%.  Mar T-notes rallied to a 2.5-month high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.5-month low of 4.016%.  T-notes are moving higher on an increase in safe-haven demand due to today’s retreat in stocks.  Also, a decline in inflation expectations is supportive for T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 5-week low of 2.271% today.  However, T-notes gave up most of their advance on hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who warned that services inflation remains elevated. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 2.5-month low of 2.724% and is down -1.9 bp to 2.735%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield slid to a 1-month low of 4.356% and is down -3.0 bp to 4.369%.

The German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth survey unexpectedly fell -1.3 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to 65.2.

The UK Dec ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a nearly 5-year high of 5.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 5.1%.

Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are falling today amid speculation that AI disruption will displace the companies.  Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -6%, and Intuit (INTU) is down more than -5%.  Also, Oracle (ORCL) and Atlassian Corp Plc (TEAM) are down more than -3%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -2% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, Adobe Systems (ADBE), ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -2%, Datadog (DDOG) is down more than -1%, Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.23%.

Silver and gold mining stocks are falling today, with gold prices down more than 3% and silver prices down more than 6%.  Hecla Mining (HL) is down more than -6%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is down more than -5%.  Also, Barrick Mining (B) is down more than -4%, and Newmont Corp (NEM), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) are down more than -3%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are retreating today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%.  MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -6%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -4%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -3%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -2%. Coinbase Global (COIN) is bucking the trend and is up more than +2%. 

Genuine Parts Co (GPC) is down more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion. 

General Mills (GIS) is down more than -8% after lowering guidance on its full-year organic net sales forecast to down -1.5% to -2.0% from a previous forecast of -1% to up +1%, weaker than the consensus of -0.44%. 

Vulcan Materials (VMC) is down more than -7% after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, below the consensus of $2.65 billion. 

Allegion Plc (ALLE) is down more than -7% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.94, weaker than the consensus of $2.00, and forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.70 to $9.90, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.86.

Danaher (DHR) is down more than -2% after the Financial Times reported the company is closing in on a nearly $10 billion deal to acquire Masimo. 

Medtronic Plc (MDT) is down more than -2% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $5.62 to $5.66, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.65. 

Masimo (MASI) is up more than +34% after the Financial Times reported that Danaher is closing in on a nearly $10 billion deal to acquire the company. 

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (ZIM) is up more than +30% after Hapag-Lloyd AG said it is buying the company in a cash deal of $35 a share, valued at about $4.2 billion. 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Elliot Investment Management has built a more than 10% stake in the company. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) is up more than +8% after JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $320.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up more than +6% after it reopened negotiations and raised its bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery. 

Fiserv (FISV) is up more than +5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the company and is pushing for changes to improve its stock performance. 

Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +5% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $73.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up more than +3% after Bloomberg News reported that the company is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance.

Moderna (MRNA) is up more than +2% after receiving approval from the EU to market its Covid-19 vaccine Mnexspike.

Earnings Reports(2/17/2026)

Allegion plc (ALLE), Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), DTE Energy Co (DTE), EQT Corp (EQT), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Kenvue Inc (KVUE), Labcorp Holdings Inc (LH), Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Vulcan Materials Co (VMC).

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