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Wheat Prices Are Headed for Their Longest Rally Since April. How You Should Play Futures Here.

March HRW wheat (KEH26) futures present a buying opportunity on more price strength.

See on the daily bar chart for March hard red winter wheat futures that prices Tuesday hit a three-week high. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence indicator has just produced a buy signal as the blue MACD line has crossed above the red trigger line.

 

Fundamentally, wheat futures are headed for a fifth straight up day today, the longest rally since April, as Black Sea supply risks and weather uncertainties support prices. Russian forces launched a missile and drone attack across Ukraine on Tuesday, killing civilians and damaging energy and port facilities in the Odesa region on the Black Sea, according to Ukrainian officials. Dryness is also building in U.S. HRW wheat-growing regions, adding to support for prices. “Dry weather accompanies record-setting warmth across the central and southern Plains,” the USDA said in a Tuesday report

A move in March HRW wheat futures above chart resistance at $5.35 would give the bulls more power and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $6.20 or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at $5.00.

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.


On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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